Personal consulting · Strategic forecasting analysis
Rational decisions begin with the right questions.
I help businesses turn complex questions about the future into precise forecast questions — and deliver a personal analysis with reasoned probability estimates.
For corporate strategy, market development, and emerging technologies. You receive a written analysis and a conversation with me to explain the findings, assumptions, and uncertainty.
Individually scoped engagement · Fixed-price proposal after scope clarification
What you receive
A written analysis. Discussed with you personally.
Bring a question, a planned initiative, or a problem you have not yet fully defined. I develop the relevant forecast questions, research and review the information, and assess possible developments. The result gives you a reasoned basis for a rational decision.
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01
A structured question tree
A clearly scoped main question and relevant subquestions, with definitions, time horizons, and criteria for checking the outcomes later.
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Probabilities with reasoning
Estimates for the agreed questions, including key drivers, uncertainties, and limits to what the analysis can establish.
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Sources, data, and assumptions
A traceable account of the information used, the assumptions made, and the gaps that affect the assessment.
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04
Triggers for reassessment
Developments that would change an estimate and information worth watching as the situation evolves.
In the follow-up discussion, I explain the analysis and address your questions. The scope, discussion, and agreed revision are set out in the written proposal.
How I work
The skill is in asking the right questions.
A single number rarely does justice to a complex question about the future. I examine the problem from different angles and make explicit which subquestions matter to the overall assessment.
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01
Clarify the problem
We establish the main question, business context, and time horizon. You do not need to arrive with a fully specified forecast question.
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Find the relevant subquestions
I break the problem into specific future events that can be checked and examine their relationships. Definitions and assumptions are made explicit.
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Research, review, and assess
I use large language models (LLMs) to support research and analysis. I review the underlying information, add my own reasoning, and take responsibility for the final assessment.
When this is useful
One important question. Several uncertain developments.
I work with businesses across industries whose strategic questions depend on future developments — and who need to identify which uncertainties deserve closer examination.
Management & strategy
Which assumptions need to hold for our initiative? Which milestones are uncertain, and how would we recognize a change in the situation?
Markets & competition
How might demand, customer behavior, and competition develop? Which specific events would support or challenge our market expectations?
Technology & business implications
When might a technology become relevant to our market? Which effects on operations, capacity, and skills should we examine separately?
An illustration of question design
“What does AI mean for our business?”
The initial question matters, but it is too broad for a single probability. For a hypothetical customer service department, I might break it down like this:
By the end of 2028: Which changes in customer service are plausible under our AI adoption assumptions?
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Adoption
Will at least 30% of incoming service requests be completed without human follow-up by December 31, 2028?
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Quality
Will the monthly case reopening rate in Q4 2028 be no more than one percentage point above the agreed baseline?
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Workload
Will human handling time per completed request in Q4 2028 be at least 20% below the baseline?
An illustration of question design, not a completed client analysis. Thresholds and dates are examples. In an engagement, definitions, sources, baselines, and dependencies are clarified before I estimate probabilities. Related subquestions are not treated as independent.
The analysis would attach probabilities, reasoning, and open assumptions to these subquestions. This makes visible which developments support the overall assessment and where information is still missing.
Vague concerns can become clearer questions, too.
“AI will take our jobs” can become several distinct questions: Which occupation, region, and time horizon? Do we mean changing tasks, fewer new hires, or declining employment? This turns a concern into future events that can be examined. It is one possible application of the method, without a promise of psychological treatment or reduced anxiety.
Who you work with
Christopher Altmann
Independent consultant for strategic forecasting analysis
April 2022 – December 2025
Independent external open-source contribution
As an external contributor, I independently contributed to the development and maintenance of an open information-market protocol. My work focused on Rust-based blockchain components built with the Polkadot SDK and remote collaboration with other open-source contributors.
The project's vision was Futarchy: an approach to governance guided by forecasts about clearly defined success metrics. Its market mechanisms were designed to encourage honest beliefs to be revealed and information to be brought together. The aim was to guide its own governance through those predictions rather than relying solely on votes expressing token holders' preferences.
That experience showed me the practical challenges of specifying clear forecast questions: What development should be measured, by when, and against which criteria? It led to my current focus on translating complex problems into precise, verifiable forecast questions.
My Bachelor of Science in eBusiness combines business administration with mathematics and computer science, including marketing, finance, production management, and statistics. My focus is translating complex problems into carefully defined forecast questions.
I have developed my own working methods and internal aids for specifying forecast questions. You commission my personal research, question design, and professional judgment. I work independently with my own tools and methods.
My work on forecast question specification is the starting point of my method. I make question design, sources, and assumptions explicit so you can critically examine my assessments.
Scope & fees
A clearly scoped engagement for your question.
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01
Email inquiry
Briefly describe the problem, time horizon, and reason for seeking an analysis.
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Clarification & fixed-price proposal
I check whether the request fits my expertise. Before work begins, we agree in writing on inputs, questions, analytical depth, deliverables, review points, and a delivery date.
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Analysis & explanation
I prepare the written analysis and discuss the findings with you. An agreed revision completes the engagement.
Fees depend on complexity, available data, the number and dependencies of subquestions, and the depth of analysis. After scope clarification, I provide an individual fixed-price proposal.
Before you get in touch
Why not simply ask AI myself?
You can. But do you want to define multiple forecast specifications, review the questions and evidence with human judgment, and assign a reasoned probability to each question yourself? I take on that work for your specific problem, making outcomes, time horizons, and resolution criteria explicit. I combine AI-supported research and analysis with my own professional judgment. You receive a traceable written analysis that I explain personally. I cannot promise a better forecast than any particular AI model.
Does my problem need to be clearly defined already?
No. Clarifying a vague initial question is part of the work. Before analysis begins, we agree what can usefully be examined and what you will receive.
Will you recommend what I should do?
You receive forecasts, reasoning, and an explanation of uncertainty. You draw your own conclusions and make the business decision. My services do not include investment, legal, or regulatory advice.
What company data will you need?
That depends on the question. Some analyses can use public sources and contextual information; others need internal baselines. We clarify required materials and their handling before work begins. Your first email can stay at the level of a general description.
Your question about the future
Which uncertainty would you like to understand better?
Tell me what you want to understand, why it matters, and when you need the analysis. We can then establish whether a personal forecasting analysis fits your question.
contact@christopher-altmann.comA short outline of the problem is enough for an initial inquiry.